Pigskin Pick’em Analysis

Game: Pigskin Pick’em
From: ESPN
Link to Play: Pigskin Pick’Em
Join our Public Group: StreakEdge

How does it work?: The NFL regular season runs from early September to the beginning of January. There are eighteen weeks in total with the number of games varying depending on which teams are on byes. Each week there is also a score tiebreaker for one of the games. The following is an explanation of the scoring breakdown:

Each week the contestant is provided with the week’s games and must pick the winner of each. Every game must then be assigned a point value between 1 and however many games there are in that given week (16 when there are no byes).

Strategy: Our numbers below are based on the strategy of maximizing score. Thus, we always take the favorites (or the side with the highest % chance of winning the proposition.)

Week 16 Pigskin Pick’em Analysis

Confidence Team Implied Odds DRatings Small Win Prob
N/A
 Denver Broncos
+130
42.1%
42.1%
42.1%
4
 Los Angeles Chargers
-148
57.9%
57.9%
57.9%
3
 Houston Texans
-125
54.4%
51.1%
53.4%
N/A
 Kansas City Chiefs
+115
45.6%
48.9%
46.6%
N/A
 Pittsburgh Steelers
+240
28.7%
24.4%
27.4%
11
 Baltimore Ravens
-270
71.3%
75.6%
72.6%
N/A
 Cleveland Browns
+315
23.7%
29.8%
25.5%
12
 Cincinnati Bengals
-350
76.3%
70.2%
74.5%
N/A
 New York Giants
+450
17.9%
14.2%
16.8%
14
 Atlanta Falcons
-500
82.1%
85.8%
83.2%
13
 Detroit Lions
-300
73%
79.7%
75%
N/A
 Chicago Bears
+260
27%
20.3%
25%
N/A
 Tennessee Titans
+180
34.9%
54.5%
40.8%
5
 Indianapolis Colts
-200
65.1%
45.5%
59.2%
7
 Los Angeles Rams
-168
62%
60%
61.4%
N/A
 New York Jets
+160
38%
40%
38.6%
8
 Philadelphia Eagles
-165
61.4%
62.1%
61.6%
N/A
 Washington Commanders
+155
38.6%
37.9%
38.4%
10
 Arizona Cardinals
-220
67.1%
70.2%
68%
N/A
 Carolina Panthers
+197
32.9%
29.8%
32%
6
 Minnesota Vikings
-152
59.1%
63.2%
60.3%
N/A
 Seattle Seahawks
+140
40.9%
36.8%
39.7%
N/A
 New England Patriots
+880
10%
6.5%
9%
16
 Buffalo Bills
-1200
90%
93.5%
91.1%
2
 Jacksonville Jaguars
-120
52.8%
48.6%
51.5%
N/A
 Las Vegas Raiders
+105
47.2%
51.4%
48.5%
N/A
 San Francisco 49ers
+100
48.3%
49.6%
48.7%
1
 Miami Dolphins
-115
51.7%
50.4%
51.3%
9
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-200
65.1%
68%
66%
N/A
 Dallas Cowboys
+180
34.9%
32%
34%
N/A
 New Orleans Saints
+720
11.9%
9.5%
11.2%
15
 Green Bay Packers
-900
88.1%
90.5%
88.8%

Results

Last Week (Week 15): Straight Up: 12-4, Points: 124.
2024-2025 Season: Straight Up: 150-58, Points: 1362.
2023-2024 Season: Straight Up: 175-98, Points: 1493.
2022-2023 Season: Straight Up: 172-97-2, Points: 1515.
2021-2022 Season: Straight Up: 171-100, Points: 1517.
2020-2021 Season: Straight Up: 159-69, Points: 1388.
2019-2020 Season: Straight Up: 166-89, Points: 1446.
2018-2019 Season: Straight Up: 158-80-2, Points: 1400.
2017-2018 Season: Straight Up: 180-76, Points: 1537.
2016-2017 Season: Straight Up: 153-85-2, Points: 1288.
2015-2016 Season: Straight Up: 162-94.

2024-2025 Results

Week Pick Probability Confidence Result
Week 1 Kansas City Chiefs 57.3% 5 Win
Week 1 Philadelphia Eagles 57.1% 4 Win
Week 1 Atlanta Falcons 57.4% 6 Loss
Week 1 Buffalo Bills 73.5% 15 Win
Week 1 Chicago Bears 64.2% 11 Win
Week 1 Cincinnati Bengals 78.2% 16 Loss
Week 1 Houston Texans 55.4% 3 Win
Week 1 Miami Dolphins 60.5% 7 Win
Week 1 New Orleans Saints 66.9% 13 Win
Week 1 Minnesota Vikings 52.5% 2 Win
Week 1 Los Angeles Chargers 62.1% 8 Win
Week 1 Seattle Seahawks 68.7% 14 Win
Week 1 Cleveland Browns 52.2% 1 Loss
Week 1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 63% 10 Win
Week 1 Detroit Lions 62.4% 9 Win
Week 1 San Francisco 49ers 66% 12 Win
Week 2 Miami Dolphins 54.3% 3 Loss
Week 2 Dallas Cowboys 69.4% 10 Loss
Week 2 Detroit Lions 72.7% 15 Loss
Week 2 Indianapolis Colts 59.6% 5 Loss
Week 2 New York Jets 63% 8 Win
Week 2 San Francisco 49ers 68.5% 9 Loss
Week 2 Seattle Seahawks 62.4% 7 Win
Week 2 Washington Commanders 52.8% 1 Win
Week 2 Los Angeles Chargers 70.8% 14 Win
Week 2 Jacksonville Jaguars 61% 6 Loss
Week 2 Baltimore Ravens 79.2% 16 Loss
Week 2 Arizona Cardinals 53.4% 2 Win
Week 2 Pittsburgh Steelers 57.6% 4 Win
Week 2 Kansas City Chiefs 70.1% 12 Win
Week 2 Houston Texans 69.6% 11 Win
Week 2 Philadelphia Eagles 70.6% 13 Loss
Week 3 New York Jets 71.9% 14 Win
Week 3 Cleveland Browns 71.1% 12 Loss
Week 3 Tennessee Titans 59.4% 7 Loss
Week 3 Indianapolis Colts 53.1% 3 Win
Week 3 Houston Texans 55.6% 5 Loss
Week 3 New Orleans Saints 51.7% 1 Loss
Week 3 Pittsburgh Steelers 53.5% 4 Win
Week 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 71.7% 13 Loss
Week 3 Las Vegas Raiders 69.3% 10 Loss
Week 3 Seattle Seahawks 69.2% 9 Win
Week 3 Baltimore Ravens 52% 2 Win
Week 3 San Francisco 49ers 75.6% 15 Loss
Week 3 Detroit Lions 57.9% 6 Win
Week 3 Kansas City Chiefs 63.4% 8 Win
Week 3 Buffalo Bills 69.9% 11 Win
Week 3 Cincinnati Bengals 76.7% 16 Loss
Week 4 Dallas Cowboys 65.9% 11 Win
Week 4 Atlanta Falcons 54.1% 4 Win
Week 4 Chicago Bears 60.5% 8 Win
Week 4 Green Bay Packers 54.6% 5 Loss
Week 4 Pittsburgh Steelers 54% 3 Loss
Week 4 New York Jets 73.7% 14 Loss
Week 4 Philadelphia Eagles 55.8% 7 Loss
Week 4 Cincinnati Bengals 66.2% 12 Win
Week 4 Houston Texans 68.8% 13 Win
Week 4 Arizona Cardinals 64.8% 10 Loss
Week 4 San Francisco 49ers 81.6% 16 Win
Week 4 Las Vegas Raiders 50.9% 2 Win
Week 4 Kansas City Chiefs 74.8% 15 Win
Week 4 Baltimore Ravens 55.7% 6 Win
Week 4 Miami Dolphins 50.7% 1 Loss
Week 4 Detroit Lions 63.6% 9 Win
Week 5 Atlanta Falcons 53.6% 3 Win
Week 5 Minnesota Vikings 56.2% 6 Win
Week 5 Chicago Bears 66.4% 11 Win
Week 5 Baltimore Ravens 58% 8 Win
Week 5 New England Patriots 51.1% 1 Loss
Week 5 Washington Commanders 58.6% 9 Win
Week 5 Jacksonville Jaguars 57.6% 7 Win
Week 5 Buffalo Bills 51.3% 2 Loss
Week 5 Denver Broncos 53.8% 4 Win
Week 5 San Francisco 49ers 76.1% 14 Loss
Week 5 Green Bay Packers 63.6% 10 Win
Week 5 Seattle Seahawks 70.4% 13 Loss
Week 5 Pittsburgh Steelers 54.5% 5 Loss
Week 5 Kansas City Chiefs 69.2% 12 Win
Week 6 San Francisco 49ers 62% 9 Win
Week 6 Chicago Bears 55.1% 2 Win
Week 6 Green Bay Packers 68.2% 10 Win
Week 6 Indianapolis Colts 50.1% 1 Win
Week 6 Houston Texans 73.9% 13 Win
Week 6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 56.5% 3 Win
Week 6 Philadelphia Eagles 76.4% 14 Win
Week 6 Baltimore Ravens 72.5% 12 Win
Week 6 Los Angeles Chargers 57.5% 5 Win
Week 6 Pittsburgh Steelers 59.1% 6 Win
Week 6 Detroit Lions 59.5% 7 Win
Week 6 Atlanta Falcons 70.4% 11 Win
Week 6 Cincinnati Bengals 61.1% 8 Win
Week 6 Buffalo Bills 57.4% 4 Win
Week 7 Denver Broncos 54% 4 Win
Week 7 Jacksonville Jaguars 64.1% 11 Win
Week 7 Atlanta Falcons 58.9% 8 Loss
Week 7 Buffalo Bills 78.3% 15 Win
Week 7 Cincinnati Bengals 70% 12 Win
Week 7 Green Bay Packers 56.7% 5 Win
Week 7 Indianapolis Colts 63.6% 10 Win
Week 7 Minnesota Vikings 53.4% 3 Loss
Week 7 Philadelphia Eagles 58.2% 7 Win
Week 7 Los Angeles Rams 71.4% 13 Win
Week 7 Washington Commanders 75.2% 14 Win
Week 7 San Francisco 49ers 52.9% 2 Loss
Week 7 New York Jets 50.4% 1 Loss
Week 7 Baltimore Ravens 61.9% 9 Win
Week 7 Los Angeles Chargers 57.3% 6 Loss
Week 8 Minnesota Vikings 63.3% 6 Win
Week 8 Baltimore Ravens 83.2% 16 Loss
Week 8 Detroit Lions 73.9% 11 Win
Week 8 Miami Dolphins 57.8% 4 Loss
Week 8 New York Jets 75.3% 13 Loss
Week 8 Atlanta Falcons 53.8% 2 Win
Week 8 Green Bay Packers 66.2% 7 Loss
Week 8 Houston Texans 68.4% 9 Win
Week 8 Cincinnati Bengals 54% 3 Loss
Week 8 Los Angeles Chargers 75% 12 Win
Week 8 Buffalo Bills 58.6% 5 Win
Week 8 Chicago Bears 53.4% 1 Loss
Week 8 Denver Broncos 78.2% 14 Win
Week 8 Kansas City Chiefs 81.6% 15 Win
Week 8 San Francisco 49ers 68.2% 8 Win
Week 8 Pittsburgh Steelers 73.5% 10 Win
Week 9 New York Jets 52.5% 3 Win
Week 9 Atlanta Falcons 59.1% 5 Win
Week 9 Buffalo Bills 72.3% 11 Win
Week 9 Cincinnati Bengals 77% 13 Win
Week 9 Los Angeles Chargers 54.8% 4 Win
Week 9 Tennessee Titans 59.5% 6 Win
Week 9 Washington Commanders 60.3% 7 Win
Week 9 New Orleans Saints 72% 10 Loss
Week 9 Baltimore Ravens 79.8% 15 Win
Week 9 Arizona Cardinals 51.4% 2 Win
Week 9 Philadelphia Eagles 73.9% 12 Win
Week 9 Detroit Lions 61.9% 8 Win
Week 9 Los Angeles Rams 51.3% 1 Win
Week 9 Minnesota Vikings 70.2% 9 Win
Week 9 Kansas City Chiefs 78% 14 Win
Week 10 Baltimore Ravens 71.2% 11 Win
Week 10 New York Giants 60.6% 4 Loss
Week 10 Chicago Bears 63.2% 6 Loss
Week 10 Buffalo Bills 66.2% 8 Win
Week 10 Kansas City Chiefs 80.6% 14 Win
Week 10 Atlanta Falcons 62.3% 5 Loss
Week 10 San Francisco 49ers 69.8% 10 Win
Week 10 Washington Commanders 57% 3 Loss
Week 10 Minnesota Vikings 67.4% 9 Win
Week 10 Los Angeles Chargers 76.4% 13 Win
Week 10 Philadelphia Eagles 75.4% 12 Win
Week 10 Arizona Cardinals 52.2% 1 Win
Week 10 Detroit Lions 65.1% 7 Win
Week 10 Los Angeles Rams 56.7% 2 Loss
Week 11 Philadelphia Eagles 64.1% 8 Win
Week 11 Green Bay Packers 62.3% 7 Win
Week 11 Detroit Lions 86.5% 14 Win
Week 11 Minnesota Vikings 71.9% 10 Win
Week 11 Miami Dolphins 78.9% 13 Win
Week 11 Los Angeles Rams 66.9% 9 Win
Week 11 New Orleans Saints 52.7% 1 Win
Week 11 Baltimore Ravens 62.1% 6 Loss
Week 11 New York Jets 58.2% 5 Loss
Week 11 Denver Broncos 53.6% 4 Win
Week 11 San Francisco 49ers 73.2% 11 Loss
Week 11 Buffalo Bills 52.9% 2 Win
Week 11 Los Angeles Chargers 53.1% 3 Win
Week 11 Houston Texans 74.8% 12 Win
Week 12 Pittsburgh Steelers 65.1% 7 Loss
Week 12 Minnesota Vikings 64.6% 6 Win
Week 12 Detroit Lions 66.4% 8 Win
Week 12 Miami Dolphins 76.7% 10 Win
Week 12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 66.7% 9 Win
Week 12 Washington Commanders 80.9% 12 Loss
Week 12 Kansas City Chiefs 84.7% 13 Win
Week 12 Houston Texans 78.8% 11 Loss
Week 12 Denver Broncos 64% 5 Win
Week 12 Green Bay Packers 55.6% 2 Win
Week 12 Seattle Seahawks 50.2% 1 Win
Week 12 Philadelphia Eagles 60.2% 4 Win
Week 12 Baltimore Ravens 59.6% 3 Win
Week 13 Detroit Lions 83.8% 15 Win
Week 13 Dallas Cowboys 64.8% 10 Win
Week 13 Green Bay Packers 62% 7 Win
Week 13 Kansas City Chiefs 86.3% 16 Win
Week 13 Los Angeles Chargers 53.2% 2 Win
Week 13 Cincinnati Bengals 57.7% 4 Loss
Week 13 Minnesota Vikings 64.2% 9 Win
Week 13 Indianapolis Colts 59.5% 6 Win
Week 13 Seattle Seahawks 52.1% 1 Win
Week 13 Washington Commanders 68.9% 12 Win
Week 13 Houston Texans 63.5% 8 Win
Week 13 Los Angeles Rams 57.4% 3 Win
Week 13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 70.4% 13 Win
Week 13 Baltimore Ravens 58.4% 5 Loss
Week 13 Buffalo Bills 73.7% 14 Win
Week 13 Denver Broncos 68.6% 11 Win
Week 14 Detroit Lions 64.8% 3 Win
Week 14 Tennessee Titans 63.7% 2 Loss
Week 14 Miami Dolphins 73.4% 11 Win
Week 14 Minnesota Vikings 69.3% 9 Win
Week 14 New Orleans Saints 66.9% 5 Win
Week 14 Philadelphia Eagles 87.3% 13 Win
Week 14 Pittsburgh Steelers 73% 10 Win
Week 14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 75.8% 12 Win
Week 14 Arizona Cardinals 53.8% 1 Loss
Week 14 Buffalo Bills 68.7% 8 Loss
Week 14 San Francisco 49ers 67.5% 6 Win
Week 14 Kansas City Chiefs 65.6% 4 Win
Week 14 Cincinnati Bengals 68.4% 7 Win
Week 15 San Francisco 49ers 58.1% 3 Loss
Week 15 Kansas City Chiefs 67% 12 Win
Week 15 Cincinnati Bengals 66.5% 10 Win
Week 15 Washington Commanders 74.8% 15 Win
Week 15 Baltimore Ravens 90.1% 16 Win
Week 15 Carolina Panthers 52.1% 1 Loss
Week 15 New York Jets 61.9% 8 Win
Week 15 Houston Texans 58.6% 4 Win
Week 15 Denver Broncos 63.9% 9 Win
Week 15 Detroit Lions 54.9% 2 Loss
Week 15 Philadelphia Eagles 60.6% 7 Win
Week 15 Arizona Cardinals 70.4% 13 Win
Week 15 Los Angeles Chargers 60% 6 Loss
Week 15 Green Bay Packers 58.8% 5 Win
Week 15 Minnesota Vikings 74.6% 14 Win
Week 15 Atlanta Falcons 66.8% 11 Win