College Football Pick’em Analysis

Game: College Football Pick’em
From: ESPN
Link to Play: College Football Pick’Em
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How does it work?: The College Football regular season runs from the beginning of September to the end of November. There are 14 weeks in total with 10 games each week plus a score tiebreaker. The following is an explanation of the scoring breakdown:

Each week the contestant is provided with 10 games and must pick the winner. The contestant must also assign a confidence level (1-10) to each game. Each confidence level can only be used once. Points are awarded by multiplying the confidence level points assigned by 1 if the contestant chooses the winner correctly.

Strategy: Our numbers below are based on the strategy of maximizing score. Thus, we always take the favorites and assign the confidence level by giving the most points to the team with highest odds of winning. In the case of ties, we present the confidence level as the average and leave you to choose which game to assign higher confidence.

Week 4 College Football Pick’em Analysis

Confidence	Team		Implied Odds		Win Prob
N/A	Texas Tech Red Raiders	+160	37.4%	41%	38.5%
4	Utah Utes	-180	62.6%	59%	61.5%
8	Arkansas Razorbacks	-265	70.2%	70.8%	70.4%
N/A	Memphis Tigers	+225	29.8%	29.2%	29.6%
N/A	SMU Mustangs	+210	31.1%	32.5%	31.5%
7	TCU Horned Frogs	-250	68.9%	67.5%	68.5%
2	Michigan Wolverines	-135	55.8%	55.6%	55.7%
N/A	Nebraska Cornhuskers	+120	44.2%	44.4%	44.3%
N/A	North Carolina Tar Heels	+200	32.2%	35.9%	33.3%
6	UCF Knights	-235	67.8%	64.1%	66.7%
N/A	NC State Wolfpack	+135	41.2%	46.2%	42.7%
3	Duke Blue Devils	-155	58.8%	53.8%	57.3%
N/A	Florida Gators	+255	27.3%	25.8%	26.9%
10	Miami Hurricanes	-300	72.7%	74.2%	73.2%
N/A	Illinois Fighting Illini	+165	36.5%	29.8%	34.5%
5	Indiana Hoosiers	-190	63.5%	70.2%	65.5%
N/A	Arizona State Sun Devils	+110	46.2%	47%	46.4%
1	Baylor Bears	-125	53.8%	53%	53.6%
9	BYU Cougars	-280	71.2%	70.3%	70.9%
N/A	East Carolina Pirates	+235	28.8%	29.7%	29.1%

Results

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