Bowl Mania Analysis


Game: Bowl Mania
From: ESPN
Link to Play: Bowl Mania

How does it work?: The College Football bowl season runs from the beginning of December until the National Championship game in early January. There are 40+ bowl games that the contestant must select a winner. For Bowl Mania, there are two possible scoring systems that can be chosen. We describe each below.

Strategy: Our numbers in the analysis table are based on the strategy of maximizing score. Thus, we always take the favorites and assign the confidence level by giving the most points to the team with highest odds of winning. In the case of ties, we present the confidence level as the average and leave you to choose which game to assign higher confidence.

How to Play

The college bowl pick’em game can be played under two scoring systems on ESPN. The simplest approach is to make picks for the winner of each game, and you are scored based on the number of correct picks. The second scoring system requires you to both make picks and provide your confidence by ranking the games in the order of most to least likely to be correct. This adds a little more of a twist in the scoring to makes things more interesting.

In our analysis table below, we have provided you with a good starting point for making your own picks. These are our recommended picks based on a combination of odds for each game using DRatings.

For those using the confidence based scoring system, be aware that you must make your pick and confidence before each game begins.

There is obviously some strategy involved in picking confidence since we do not know who will play in the National Championship game. For our pick on that game, we used a weighted average of all the possible scenarios to provide you with the current expectation on who is likely to win in case you want to go ahead and make all your picks and confidence selections now. Of course it’s likely better to wait on this game as far as the winner goes, but you may want to go ahead and lock the confidence position ahead of time or if you’re fully uncertain then you can always make this one have the lowest confidence.

2024-2025 College Football Bowl Mania Predictions

Confidence Team Implied Odds DRatings Small Win Prob
3
Jackson State Tigers
-125
51.9%
48.4%
50.9%
N/A
South Carolina State Bulldogs
-106
48.1%
51.6%
49.2%
41
South Alabama Jaguars
-365
75.8%
77.5%
76.3%
N/A
Western Michigan Broncos
+300
24.2%
22.5%
23.7%
14
Memphis Tigers
-125
53.2%
56.9%
54.3%
N/A
West Virginia Mountaineers
+105
46.8%
43.1%
45.7%
N/A
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
+235
28.6%
24.8%
27.5%
34
James Madison Dukes
-290
71.4%
75.2%
72.5%
5
California Golden Bears
-125
53.2%
47.8%
51.6%
N/A
UNLV Rebels
+105
46.8%
52.2%
48.4%
29
Georgia Southern Eagles
-200
64.3%
71%
66.3%
N/A
Sam Houston State Bearkats
+170
35.7%
29%
33.7%
11
Ohio Bobcats
-125
53.2%
55.5%
53.9%
N/A
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
+105
46.8%
44.5%
46.1%
N/A
Tulane Green Wave
+350
21.4%
26.7%
23%
43
Florida Gators
-450
78.6%
73.3%
77%
N/A
Indiana Hoosiers
+260
27.4%
28%
27.6%
33
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
-280
72.6%
72%
72.4%
N/A
SMU Mustangs
+280
26%
26.3%
26.1%
39
Penn State Nittany Lions
-300
74%
73.7%
73.9%
N/A
Clemson Tigers
+335
22.3%
20.6%
21.8%
44
Texas Longhorns
-400
77.7%
79.4%
78.2%
N/A
Tennessee Volunteers
+240
28.7%
21.5%
26.5%
37
Ohio State Buckeyes
-270
71.3%
78.5%
73.5%
N/A
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
+185
33.6%
38.3%
35%
27
UTSA Roadrunners
-225
66.4%
61.7%
65%
8
Northern Illinois Huskies
-125
53.2%
51%
52.5%
N/A
Fresno State Bulldogs
+105
46.8%
49%
47.5%
N/A
South Florida Bulls
+115
44.7%
46.9%
45.4%
16
San Jose State Spartans
-135
55.3%
53.1%
54.6%
35
Pittsburgh Panthers
-320
73.3%
72.3%
73%
N/A
Toledo Rockets
+260
26.7%
27.7%
27%
N/A
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
+235
28.6%
27.8%
28.4%
32
Kansas State Wildcats
-290
71.4%
72.2%
71.6%
N/A
Arkansas State Red Wolves
+185
33.6%
75.5%
46.2%
10
Bowling Green Falcons
-225
66.4%
24.5%
53.8%
38
Oklahoma Sooners
-290
71%
80%
73.7%
N/A
Navy Midshipmen
+230
29%
20%
26.3%
12
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
-130
53.7%
54.6%
54%
N/A
Vanderbilt Commodores
+105
46.3%
45.4%
46%
N/A
Texas Tech Red Raiders
+110
45.7%
46.2%
45.9%
13
Arkansas Razorbacks
-130
54.3%
53.8%
54.2%
25
Syracuse Orange
-225
66.4%
58.1%
63.9%
N/A
Washington State Cougars
+185
33.6%
41.9%
36.1%
20
Texas A&M Aggies
-140
56.2%
55.2%
55.9%
N/A
USC Trojans
+120
43.8%
44.8%
44.1%
N/A
Connecticut Huskies
+160
37%
40%
37.9%
24
North Carolina Tar Heels
-190
63%
60%
62.1%
N/A
Boston College Eagles
+140
40.1%
36.7%
39.1%
23
Nebraska Cornhuskers
-165
59.9%
63.3%
60.9%
N/A
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
+315
23.7%
22.6%
23.4%
42
TCU Horned Frogs
-345
76.3%
77.4%
76.6%
N/A
Iowa State Cyclones
+103
48.1%
48.5%
48.2%
7
Miami Hurricanes
-113
51.9%
51.5%
51.8%
6
Miami OH RedHawks
-120
52.2%
50.6%
51.7%
N/A
Colorado State Rams
+100
47.8%
49.4%
48.3%
N/A
East Carolina Pirates
+170
35.7%
32%
34.6%
28
NC State Wolfpack
-200
64.3%
68%
65.4%
N/A
BYU Cougars
+115
44.7%
47.7%
45.6%
15
Colorado Buffaloes
-135
55.3%
52.3%
54.4%
N/A
Marshall Thundering Herd
+230
29.8%
31.5%
30.3%
31
Army Black Knights
-250
70.2%
68.5%
69.7%
N/A
Iowa Hawkeyes
+110
45.7%
51%
47.3%
9
Missouri Tigers
-130
54.3%
49%
52.7%
30
Alabama Crimson Tide
-425
77.5%
51.3%
69.6%
N/A
Michigan Wolverines
+325
22.5%
48.7%
30.4%
26
Louisville Cardinals
-190
63%
68.8%
64.7%
N/A
Washington Huskies
+160
37%
31.2%
35.3%
46
South Carolina Gamecocks
-425
77.5%
82.1%
78.9%
N/A
Illinois Fighting Illini
+325
22.5%
17.9%
21.1%
N/A
Baylor Bears
+115
44.7%
44.4%
44.6%
19
LSU Tigers
-135
55.3%
55.6%
55.4%
40
SMU/PSU
-330
74%
76.7%
74.8%
N/A
Boise State Broncos
+270
26%
23.2%
25.2%
45
CLEM/TEX
-410
77.6%
80.3%
78.4%
N/A
Arizona State Sun Devils
+330
22.4%
19.6%
21.6%
N/A
TENN/OSU
+118
44.2%
45.8%
44.7%
18
Oregon Ducks
-138
55.8%
54.1%
55.3%
N/A
IND/ND
+116
44.5%
46.2%
45%
17
Georgia Bulldogs
-136
55.5%
53.7%
55%
N/A
Duke Blue Devils
+360
20.8%
14.8%
19%
47
Ole Miss Rebels
-480
79.2%
85.2%
81%
N/A
North Texas Mean Green
+275
25.6%
29%
26.6%
36
Texas State Bobcats
-345
74.4%
71%
73.4%
22
Minnesota Golden Gophers
-170
60.7%
59.3%
60.3%
N/A
Virginia Tech Hokies
+145
39.3%
40.7%
39.7%
N/A
Buffalo Bulls
+115
44.7%
41.3%
43.7%
21
Liberty Flames
-135
55.3%
58.7%
56.3%
N/A
SMU/PSU/BSU
-110
50%
49%
49.7%
1
IND/ND/UGA
-110
50%
51%
50.3%
N/A
CLEM/TEX/ASU
-110
50%
48%
49.4%
2
TENN/OSU/ORE
-110
50%
52%
50.6%
4
Orange Bowl Winner
-110
50%
55%
51.5%
N/A
Cotton Bowl Winner
-110
50%
45%
48.5%

Results

2023-2024 Bowl Season Pick Results

Pick Probability Confidence Result
Georgia Southern Eagles 58% 13 Loss
Florida A&M Rattlers 65.5% 25 Win
Jacksonville State Gamecocks 53.9% 7 Win
Appalachian State Mountaineers 63.3% 23 Win
New Mexico State Aggies 56.7% 12 Loss
UCLA Bruins 54.5% 10 Win
Texas Tech Red Raiders 58.6% 15 Win
Old Dominion Monarchs 52% 4 Loss
UTSA Roadrunners 74.4% 33 Win
Syracuse Orange 61.8% 19 Loss
UCF Knights 67.4% 28 Loss
Arkansas State Red Wolves 51.9% 3 Loss
Troy Trojans 72.5% 31 Loss
James Madison Dukes 60% 16 Loss
Georgia State Panthers 52.3% 5 Win
South Alabama Jaguars 86.2% 42 Win
Utah Utes 74.3% 32 Loss
San Jose State Spartans 75.9% 37 Loss
Minnesota Golden Gophers 66.5% 26 Win
Texas State Bobcats 62.1% 21 Win
Kansas Jayhawks 79.9% 39 Win
Virginia Tech Hokies 69.3% 30 Win
West Virginia Mountaineers 53.7% 6 Win
Louisville Cardinals 68% 29 Loss
Texas A&M Aggies 63.7% 24 Loss
SMU Mustangs 79.4% 38 Loss
Miami Hurricanes 58.2% 14 Loss
Kansas State Wildcats 63.2% 22 Win
Arizona Wildcats 54.3% 8 Win
Clemson Tigers 67.2% 27 Win
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 75.8% 36 Win
Iowa State Cyclones 74.8% 34 Loss
Missouri Tigers 54.4% 9 Win
Penn State Nittany Lions 60.6% 17 Loss
Auburn Tigers 51% 2 Loss
Georgia Bulldogs 83.4% 41 Win
Wyoming Cowboys 50.9% 1 Win
LSU Tigers 81.5% 40 Win
Oregon Ducks 86.7% 43 Win
Tennessee Volunteers 75.1% 35 Win
Michigan Wolverines 56.1% 11 Win
Texas Longhorns 60.8% 18 Loss
MICH/ALA 62% 20 Win

2023-2024 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 946
Expected Points: 669.4 Actual Points: 575 Point Diff: -94.4
Projected Wins: 28.0 Actual Wins: 25 Win Diff: -3.0
Projected Losses: 15.0 Actual Losses: 18

2022-2023 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 946
Expected Points: 661.5 Actual Points: 598 Point Diff: -63.5
Projected Wins: 27.9 Actual Wins: 27 Win Diff: -0.9
Projected Losses: 15.1 Actual Losses: 16

2019-2020 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 861
Expected Points: 615.1 Actual Points: 672 Point Diff: +56.9
Projected Wins: 27.0 Actual Wins: 32 Win Diff: -5.0
Projected Losses: 14.0 Actual Losses: 9

2018-2019 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 861
Expected Points: 583.9 Actual Points: 461 Point Diff: -122.9
Projected Wins: 26.0 Actual Wins: 20 Win Diff: -6.0
Projected Losses: 15.0 Actual Losses: 20

2017-2018 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 861
Expected Points: 589.4 Actual Points: 494 Point Diff: -95.4
Projected Wins: 26.0 Actual Wins: 24 Win Diff: -2.0
Projected Losses: 15.0 Actual Losses: 17

2016-2017 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 903
Expected Points: 645.2 Actual Points: 615 Point Diff: -30.2
Projected Wins: 28.0 Actual Wins: 26 Win Diff: -2.0
Projected Losses: 14.0 Actual Losses: 16

2015-2016 College Football Bowl Mania Results

Total Possible Points (TPP): 903
Expected Points: 626.3 Actual Points: 678 Point Diff: +51.7
Projected Wins: 27.3 Actual Wins: 29 Win Diff: +1.7
Projected Losses: 14.7 Actual Losses: 13